Forex Exchange Rate



             


Tuesday, February 5, 2008

What is Forex?

If you read about investing, you've seen the word forex pop up. But because forex doesn't get much publicity in the major publications and websites, many investors don't know that forex is just short for "foreign exchange." So trading the forex market is simply trading foreign currencies. As recently as ten years ago, currency trading had high barriers to entry, so only large banking and institutional firms had access to the tools and systems required to play in the forex game. Recently, however, technology has developed to the point that any individual investor can hop right in and trade with one of the many online platforms.

When buying and selling in the forex market, you'll see that there are four "currency pairs" that dominate the percentage of trades. Those four are the Euro vs U.S. Dollar, US Dollar vs Japanese Yen, US Dollar vs Swiss Franc, and US Dollar vs British Pound.

The goal when investing in currency is to be holding a currency that appreciates in value in relation to the other currencies. To use an overly simplistic example, if you bought 50 British Pounds for 100 US Dollars, held the Pounds for 1 week, and in that period the value of Pounds increased in relation to US Dollars, you could then convert those Pounds back into dollars for, say, $120.

Unlike the domestic stock markets, the forex is open for trades 24 hours a day. Much like the phrase "it's always noon somewhere," it's always business hours at some region of the globe. Since every country trades on the FX market, and it's open all day, the daily volume is roughly $1.2 trillion, which dwarfs that of the NYSE. Another comparison to make in order to truly realize the magnitude of the forex market is with the currency futures market (which has around 1% of the daily volume).

One other important distinction to make is that currency trading is not centered on an exchange like the NYSE or NASDAQ. There is no central body or organization required to act as middleman. Trading circulates between major banking centers around the world.

Until recently, there were strict financial requirements and massive minimum transaction sizes which prevented individual investors from trading. But with the advent of the internet came the FX brokers. A forex broker is similar to an online stock trading account such as etrade. Anybody can open an account and buy and sell in any quantity. Because the brokers have thousands of investors placing orders through them, they are able to meet the large minimum transaction size by purchasing in large blocks and distributing currency amongst the purchasing investors.

Although it is now easy to start trading forex, it is a complicated and complex market. While it offers fantastic opportunity for wealth, it is also very easy to lose your shirt in a hurry. Before trading forex, do your homework and read as much as you can find before investing your hard earned money.

This article is just a small piece of the free Forex Education at forexgameplan.com. Go learn about this incredible market and sign up today while the 30 day course is still free.

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Friday, February 1, 2008

Forex Trading Systems: Mechanical Vs. Discretionary Systems.

There are basically two types of Forex trading systems, mechanical and discretionary systems. The trading signals that come out of mechanical systems are mainly based off technical analysis applied in a systematic way. On the other hand, discretionary systems use experience, intuition or judgment on entries and exits. But which one produces better results? Or more importantly, which one fits better your trading style? These are the answers we will try to answer on this article.

We will first analyze the pros and cons about each system approach.

Mechanical systems

Advantages
This kind of system can be automated and backtested efficiently.
It has very rigid rules. Either, there is a trade or there isn?t.
Mechanical traders are less susceptible to emotions than discretionary traders.

Disadvantages
Most traders backtest Forex trading systems incorrectly. In order to produce accurate results you need tick data.
The Forex market is always changing. The Forex market (and all markets) has a random component. The market conditions may look similar, but they are never the same.
A system that worked successfully the past year doesn?t necessary mean it will work this year.

Discretionary systems

Advantages
Discretionary systems are easily adaptable to new market conditions.
Trading decisions are based on experience. Traders learn to see which trading signals have higher probability of success.

Disadvantages
They cannot be backtested or automated, since there is always a thought decision to be made.
It takes time to develop the experience required to trade successfully and track trades in a discretionary way. At early stages this can be dangerous.

Now, which approach is better for Forex traders? The one that fits better your personality. For instance, if you are a trader that finds it hard to follow your trading signals, then you are better off using a mechanical system, where your judgment won?t play an important role in your system. You only take the trades that your system signals.

If the psychological barriers that affect every trader (fear, greed, anger, etc.) puts you in unwanted scenarios, you are also better off trading mechanical systems, because you only need to follow what your system is telling you, go short, go long, close a trade. No other decision has to be made.

On the other hand, if you are a disciplined trader, then you are better off using a discretionary system, because discretionary systems adapt to the market conditions and you are able to change your trading conditions as the market changes. For instance, you have a target of 60 pips on a long trade. But the market suddenly starts trending up pretty strongly, then you could move your target to say 100 pips.

Does it mean that trading a discretionary system has no rules? This is absolutely incorrect. Trading discretionary systems means that once a trader finds his/her setup, the trader then decides what to do. But every trader still needs certain rules that need to be followed, such as the size of the position, conditions that have to be met before thinking to get in the market, and so on.

I am a discretionary trader. The main reason I chose a discretionary system is that my trades are based on price behavior, and as you already know, the price behaves similar to the past, but it is never identical, therefore the outcome of every trade is unknown. However, I do have rigid rules on my system, certain conditions have to be met before I even think in getting in a trade. This keeps me out of trouble, once my setup is present and in accordance with the rules I have set, then I closely watch the price behavior and finally decide whether it is a good opportunity or not.

Whether you choose to be a discretionary or a mechanical trader there are some important points you should take in consideration:

1. You need to make sure the Forex trading system you are using totally fits your personality. Otherwise you will find yourself outguessing your system.

2. You also need to have some rules and most importantly have the discipline to follow them.

3. Take your time to build the perfect system for you. It?s not easy and requires time and hard work, but at the end, if done correctly, it will give you consistent profitable results.

4. Before going live, try it on a demo account or even on a small account (I will go for the second option, since psychological barriers will be present.) Raul Lopez is a full time Forex trader, his trades are based on a price behavior approach. Raul is also founder of http://www.straightforex.com a high quality Forex training company.

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Forex Pivot Points: Mapping Your Time Frame

It is useful to have a map and be able to see where the price is relative to previous market action. This way we can see how is the sentiment of traders and investors at any given moment, it also gives us a general idea of where the market is heading during the day. This information can help us decide which way to trade.

Pivot points, a technique developed by floor traders, help us see where the price is relative to previous market action.

As a definition, a pivot point is a turning point or condition. The same applies to the Forex market, the pivot point is a level in which the sentiment of the market changes from ?bull? to ?bear? or vice versa. If the market breaks this level up, then the sentiment is said to be a bull market and it is likely to continue its way up, on the other hand, if the market breaks this level down, then the sentiment is bear, and it is expected to continue its way down. Also at this level, the market is expected to have some kind of support/resistance, and if price can?t break the pivot point, a possible bounce from it is plausible.

Pivot points work best on highly liquid markets, like the spot currency market, but they can also be used in other markets as well.

Pivot Points

In a few words, pivot point is a level in which the sentiment of traders and investors changes from bull to bear or vice versa.

Why PP work?

They work simply because many individual traders and investors use and trust them, as well as bank and institutional traders. It is known to every trader that the pivot point is an important measure of strength and weakness of any market.

Calculating pivot points

There are several ways to arrive to the Pivot point. The method we found to have the most accurate results is calculated by taking the average of the high, low and close of a previous period (or session).

Pivot point (PP) = (High + Low + Close) / 3

Take for instance the following EUR/USD information from the previous session:

Open: 1.2386
High: 1.2474
Low: 1.2376
Close: 1.2458

The PP would be,
PP = (1.2474 + 1.2376 + 1.2458) / 3 = 1.2439

What does this number tell us?

It simply tells us that if the market is trading above 1.2439, Bulls are winning the battle pushing the prices higher. And if the market is trading below this 1.2439 the bears are winning the battle pulling prices lower. On both cases this condition is likely to sustain until the next session.

Since the Forex market is a 24hr market (no close or open from day to day) there is a eternal battle on deciding at white time we should take the open, close, high and low from each session. From our point of view, the times that produce more accurate predictions is taking the open at 00:00 GMT and the close at 23:59 GMT.

Besides the calculation of the PP, there are other support and resistance levels that are calculated taking the PP as a reference.

Support 1 (S1) = (PP * 2) ? H
Resistance 1 (R1) = (PP * 2) - L
Support 2 (S2) = PP ? (R1 ? S1)
Resistance 2 (R2) = PP + (R1 ? S1)

Where , H is the High of the previous period and L is the low of the previous period

Continuing with the example above, PP = 1.2439

S1 = (1.2439 * 2) - 1.2474 = 1.2404
R1 = (1.2439 * 2) ? 1.2376 = 1.2502
R2 = 1.2439 + (1.2636 ? 1.2537) = 1.2537
S2 = 1.2439 ? (1.2636 ? 1.2537) = 1.2537

These levels are supposed to mark support and resistance levels for the current session.

On the example above, the PP was calculated using information of the previous session (previous day.) This way we could see possible intraday resistance and support levels. But it can also be calculated using the previous weekly or monthly data to determine such levels. By doing so we are able to see the sentiment over longer periods of time. Also we can see possible levels that might offer support and resistance throughout the week or month. Calculating the Pivot point in a weekly or monthly basis is mostly used by long term traders, but it can also be used by short time traders, it gives us a good idea about the longer term trend.

S1, S2, R1 AND R2...? An Objective Alternative

As already stated, the pivot point zone is a well-known technique and it works simply because many traders and investors use and trust it. But what about the other support and resistance zones (S1, S2, R1 and R2,) to forecast a support or resistance level with some mathematical formula is somehow subjective. It is hard to rely on them blindly just because the formula popped out that level. For this reason, we have created an alternative way to map our time frame, simpler but more objective and effective.

We calculate the pivot point as showed before. But our support and resistance levels are drawn in a different way. We take the previous session high and low, and draw those levels on today?s chart. The same is done with the session before the previous session. So, we will have our PP and four more important levels drawn in our chart.

LOPS1, low of the previous session.
HOPS1, high of the previous session.
LOPS2, low of the session before the previous session.
HOPS2, high of the session before the previous session.
PP, pivot point.

These levels will tell us the strength of the market at any given moment. If the market is trading above the PP, then the market is considered in a possible uptrend. If the market is trading above HOPS1 or HOPS2, then the market is in an uptrend, and we only take long positions. If the market is trading below the PP then the market is considered in a possible downtrend. If the market is trading below LOPS1 or LOPS2, then the market is in a downtrend, and we should only consider short trades.

The psychology behind this approach is simple. We know that for some reason the market stopped there from going higher/lower the previous session, or the session before that. We don?t know the reason, and we don?t need to know it. We only know the fact: the market reversed at that level. We also know that traders and investors have memories, they do remember that the price stopped there before, and the odds are that the market reverses from there again (maybe because the same reason, and maybe not) or at least find some support or resistance at these levels.

What is important about his approach is that support and resistance levels are measured objectively; they aren?t just a level derived from a mathematical formula, the price reversed there before so these levels have a higher probability of being effective.

Our mapping method works on both market conditions, when trending and on sideways conditions. In a trending market, it helps us determine the strength of the trend and trade off important levels. On sideways markets it shows us possible reversal levels.

How we use our mapping method?

We use the mapping method in three different ways: as a trend identification (measure of the strength of the trend), a trading system using important levels with price behavior as a trading signal and to set the risk reward ratio of any given trade based on where the is the market relative to the previous session.Raul Lopez is a full time Forex trader, his trades are based on a price behavior approach. Raul is also founder of http://www.straightforex.com a high quality Forex training company.

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Friday, November 30, 2007

Forex Versus Stocks

Stocks have been a popular investment for hundreds of years. Companies issue stocks to raise capital for expansion and new projects, and each share of the stock represents a partial ownership in the company.

When the company does well and makes a profit, the value of the stocks rise. Stock owners can sell their shares for a profit or hold on to the stock for even more gain in the future. Sometimes companies will issue dividends part of the profits that are distributed to share holders.

Stocks are traded on stock exchanges. Most stocks are bought and sold through brokers who charge a commission or fee for this service. American stock exchanges include the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System (NASDAQ). Most stocks are only listed on one exchange, although large companies may have listings on several exchanges.

Stocks were traditionally seen as long term investments. So called 'blue chip' stocks - those having proven value over many years - may form the backbone of an investment portfolio. Short term trading is a relatively new phenomenon made possible with the advent of Internet trading. Day traders attempt to take advantage of large daily fluctuations in the market by buying and selling many times in one trading period. It is relatively risky and any profits realized are reduced by broker commissions charged on each transaction.

Stocks may sometimes be bought on margin, meaning that the investor borrows money to buy the stocks. Margin rates are usually around 50% - the investor can borrow as much as half the value of the stock.

FOREX

The Foreign Exchange Market (FOREX) is quite different from the stock exchange. In contrast to the stock exchange, the FOREX is primarily a short term market. Most traders enter and exit deals within a 24 hour period sometimes within a few minutes. Many FOREX trades can be made in one day without building up a large brokerage fee because FOREX trades are commission free. Brokers earn money by setting a spread the difference between asking and selling prices.

The FOREX is the largest financial market in the world. It is handles transactions worth $1.5 trillion every day. By comparison, all the American stock exchanges combined handle daily transactions worth about $100 billion. The huge volume of FOREX means that it is one of the most liquid markets in the world. There is always a buyer and seller for any type of currency because the world economy relies on the movement of goods from country to country. The stock market is less liquid because participants may choose to hold their investments or move on to other markets.

The FOREX is not located in any one location. Trading markets are located world-wide and because of difference in time-zones trades can be made 24 hours a day, 5 days a week. Trading begins in Sydney, Australia on Monday morning (Sunday afternoon New York time) and continues non-stop until Friday afternoon New York time.

Stock exchanges have more limited trading hours. While it is possible to trade on exchanges world-wide, each exchange is independent and operates for just 7 hours a day. There is no way to buy or sell a certain stock that is only traded on one stock exchange when that exchange is closed.

Other advantages of FOREX? It is more predictable than stocks. It follows well established trends; it allows high leverage typically 100:1 instead of 2:1 on the stock market; and it doesn't require a large investment mini accounts as small as $250 can get you started in FOREX.
This article provided courtesy of http://www.daytrader-futures.com
Hana Lee -
http://www.daytrader-futures.com
 

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